Dear Neighbor,
This newsletter is the first of a series of "secrets:" facts that aren't widely known and are absent from public discussion..
Just building new housing won't come close to solving our biggest housing crisis or preventing more people from becoming unhoused.
We need to preserve existing, relatively affordable, homes, with rent stabilization, tenant opportunity to purchase, and transfer fees.
Scroll down for: good news you probably haven't heard!
No secret: We need more housing
It's widely reported that the state estimates we need 222,000 new housing units by 2035.
That will certainly be a challenge, especially with increased labor and materials costs created by the chaos unleashed in Washington DC.
Boston.com reported in February, “The state added an average of 19,000 units per year from 2010 to 2020, according to the report, but the latest numbers show that building has slowed, with only 11,600 homes issued building permits in 2023.” And that's before the tariff chaos and deportations.
Secret: what kind of housing do we need most?
It's not well-known that “there is an estimated shortage of 183,000 rental homes affordable and available for extremely low-income renters.” This quote is from a recent Healey administration presentation to a meeting of three housing commissions. (I serve on the senior housing commission.) The slide deck is here; click on the April presentation.
(Chart from a National Low-Income Housing Coalition report, which has a lot more information.)
Meeting that need would mean almost doubling the number of affordable rental units (which include public housing, and housing for those with merely “low” income). According to “A Home for Everyone, State-Wide Housing Needs Assessment,” there are approximately 210,000 rental homes in Massachusetts limited to people based on their income.”
Here’s more data on the shortage of homes for extremely low-income (ELI) people from that slide deck:
Chart from National Low Income Housing Coalition. (AMI means Area Median Income, meaning half of families earn more and half earn less.)
But what’s being built?
Most of the new and converted housing consists of “luxury” condos and apartments. Even if all cities required 20% affordability in a development, it wouldn't come close to what we need.
The MBTA Communities Act (p. 6) doesn’t require any affordable units, and requires special permission to enact local ordinances requiring more than 10% affordability.
Until 2023, Somerville required any developer building a three-decker or adding a third unit to a one or two-family house make the third unit affordable. From 2019 through the zoning change in late 2023, it averaged fewer than one application a year. As of October last year, Somerville received 12 applications for the ground-up construction of three-unit homes - none of them affordable.
Similarly Somerville has also seen an increase in applications to convert one- or two-family homes into three units. By October last year, it received 11 such applications. From 2019 to 2023, it averaged five per year. Info from Boston Business Journal. In addition, some of the new construction includes a fourth unit, an Accessory Dwelling Unit or cottage, also now allowed by right.
Meanwhile, naturally affordable homes are bought by speculators, and are no longer affordable.
A Home for Everyone, the state-wide needs assessment, says, “We are at risk of losing the homes we have, especially the affordable ones…The availability of modestly priced homes and apartments is dwindling as they are acquired and upscaled by investors who sell or rent at a much higher price point.” (pp. 31, 61). (There's a lot of information on the specific kinds of housing needed.)
What is to be Done?
We need policies that preserve naturally occurring, relatively affordable, homes! "You can't build old and cheap!"
Cities and towns need legislation allowing them to adopt policies like rent stabilization, tenant opportunity to purchase, and transfer fees! I wrote about this in previous newsletters:
We Need Much More Sooner: Preservation is cheaper, faster, and more environmentally friendly than demolition and construction. We need both!
Homes being bought by Speculators: From 2014-2020, in East Somerville, for example, over half the 3-deckers and almost 2/3 of 2-families were sold to investors.
Why Rent Stabilization? Building more housing is necessary but insufficient. Preserving existing affordable housing is insufficient by necessary.
Rent Stabilization: the Somerville experience What we learned when Somerville had rent control
What about the Affordable Homes Act?
Passed in July 2024, the Affordable Homes Act (AHA) allocates $5.16 billion in spending over the next five years for many important investments, creates new policies such as allowing Accessory Dwelling Units as of right in all single-family zoning, and allows sealing of no-fault and some other evictions.
Here’s my newsletter on the AHA, with more details on the challenges we face in meeting its goals.
For example, the state estimates that, combined with federal Low Income Housing Tax Credits (at risk now), the funding here could produce 14,877 units for households below 80% of Area Median Income (AMI). An estimated 25% of units are likely to be occupied by extremely low-income (ELI) households, through the use of vouchers. Again, not nearly enough for what's needed.
The AHA recognizes the need for preservation: $2 billion is allocated for repairs and rehabilitation in public housing.
There's also a relatively small $10 million made available for the Small Properties Acquisition Fund, which helps non-profits buy 1-8 unit buildings and make them permanently affordable. I helped start this program, with Community Land Trusts. Our first pilot budget item of $1 million allowed preservation of 8 units. It's a start!
The law created commissions on Extremely Low-Income, Senior Housing and Accessible Housing. The three commissions have met together and learned a lot, some of which is cited here. I go as a member of the Senior Housing Commission.
There are a lot more allocations for special funds, and many other policies. Read more here.
Good News!
Lottery for thirty-seven "workforce" affordable units in West Somerville! Spread the word!
Song of the Week, celebrating Juneteenth:
Oh Freedom, sung by Sweet Honey in the Rock
Stay in touch,
Pat Jehlen